I have an interesting proposal, an indicator based on the COT report, a good tool for determining long-term trends.
Commitment of Traders (COT) report is published on Tuesday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Non Commercial component shows a high correlation with the dollar exchange rate movements.
Report is available here http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/CFTC009781.html
I have added Excel example for Dollar and parallel movement of EUR / USD for comparison.